Electricity shortages in Sweden are often misunderstood — we produce more electricity than we consume, but power shortages and capacity shortages create challenges. Here we compare the difference between electricity shortages, power shortages and capacity shortages and why they occur.
Electricity shortages are actually a misunderstanding many have about Sweden's energy situation. In Sweden, more electricity is produced domestically than is consumed during most hours of the year, and we are a large net exporter of electricity.
Despite this, we face challenges of power shortages and capacity shortages in some areas. Electricity shortages in Sweden are rarely about lack of electricity generation in general, but rather power shortages that occur when at specific times there is not enough electricity to meet demand. This can happen either in the whole country or in any of the four electricity areas into which Sweden is divided. The risk of power shortages occurs when the demand for electricity is greater than the supply in an electricity area. In this article we will explain the difference between different types of electricity shortages, why they occur, and how they affect the electrification of our society.
Concepts around electricity supply are often mixed up in the debate, which can lead to confusion. It is essential to understand the differences between electricity shortages, power shortages and capacity shortages in order to be able to discuss Sweden's energy challenges in a meaningful way.
Electricity shortages (also called electrical energy shortages) occur when total electricity production is not enough to cover demand for a long period [1]. This is about electrical energy seen over a long period of time, often a whole year [2]. In practice, this is a relatively uncommon phenomenon in Sweden - The last time the country experienced a shortage of electricity was in 2010., when Sweden was a net importer of electricity [3].
Power deficiency, on the other hand, is something completely different. This occurs when, at a specific moment, there is not enough electricity available to immediately meet a high demand [4]. While electricity shortages are about long-term energy supply, power shortages concern immediate demand [4]. Power shortages can occur during cold winter mornings, for example, when both households and industries use a lot of electricity at the same time [3]. In January 2021, Sweden experienced a power shortage on a few cold days [3], and Svenska Kraftverket estimates that the number of hours of power shortage is expected to increase in the coming years, especially in electricity area 3 [3].
Capacity shortages are neither about lack of electrical energy nor power, but about the limited ability of the power grid to transport electricity from where it is produced to where it is needed [4]. It can be likened to electricity lines being too 'thin' to handle the amount of electricity that needs to be transported [5].
In practice, capacity shortages mean that grid companies have to deny connection to new consumers or increase power to existing customers [6]. This problem has become noticeable in recent years - since about two years ago, signals have been coming in that new electricity users cannot be connected to the grid in different places in the country [1].
The consequences of power deficiency can be serious. If Svenska Kraftverket assesses that the risk of power shortages is high, information is sent out to the public urging them to reduce their electricity consumption [5]. In extreme cases, Swedish Power Networks can order grid companies to shut off electricity in certain areas to protect the grid, something called manual disconnection [5][7].
The impact of capacity shortages is longer-term, but at least as problematic. It inhibits both growth and transformation to a more sustainable society [6]. Implications become particularly clear for business expansion, infrastructure projects and electrification of transport and industry [4].
In several Swedish metropolitan regions, the network capacity ceiling has begun to be reached, which limits the ability to connect new customers and can hamper the establishment of industries and urban development [8]. This problem is exacerbated by factors such as increased population, urbanization, digitization and the connection of more wind power [1].
Power shortages in our electrical system occur mainly under specific conditions and for specific reasons. The phenomenon is not constant, but it nevertheless poses a growing problem for Sweden's electricity supply and societal development.
The risk of power shortages is greatest during cold, windless winter days when electricity consumption reaches its peaks [9]. During the previous winter, the highest peak power was measured at 25,200 MW, of which Swedish electricity production covered 24,500 MW while 700 MW needed to be imported [10]. At the same time, the prospects for the future are becoming increasingly uncertain — Swedish power grid has tried to procure a strategic reserve of up to 800 MW for the coming winter but failed [11]. This means that Sweden, for the first time in a long time, is without an electricity reserve, which increases the vulnerability to sudden peaks in electricity consumption [12].
A fundamental problem is the uneven distribution of electricity generation within the country. In southern Sweden, especially Skåne, self-sufficiency rate of electricity only 15 percent [13]. In addition, the Cooperation Organization of European System Operators (ENTSO-E) has singled out Sweden's southernmost electricity area SE4 as the area in Europe with the least installed electricity generation capacity in relation to expected maximum usage [13].
The situation has been exacerbated by the closure of nuclear reactors in Ringhals, which noticeably worsens the balance of power [10]. In addition, there is a risk of closure of cogeneration plants of up to 700 MW [10]. Although wind power is being built out continuously, it is not planable in the same way as nuclear power. In straitened situations, only 9 per cent of wind power's installed power is estimated to be available, compared with 90 per cent for nuclear power [10].
Import possibilities are not unlimited, increasing vulnerability in case of power shortages [10]. Although Sweden has good transmission capacity to neighbouring countries, opportunities to import may be limited if these countries experience straitened situations at the same time [1].
Transmission capacity between northern and southern Sweden has also been reduced by 900 MW between 2012 and 2021 [4]. While electricity transmission hit the capacity ceiling in just under 4 per cent of the year's hours in 2012, this occurred in as much as 50 per cent of hours in 2021 [4]. This development takes place at the same time as Sweden's import and export patterns are changing through new foreign relations, which further complicates the picture [4].
Lack of capacity in the electricity grid is slowing Sweden's transition to an electrified society. While the discussion often revolves around electricity generation, in many cases it is transmission capacity that constitutes the real bottleneck.
Urbanisation creates enormous challenges for electricity supply. Population growth, increased housing construction and digitalization lead to sharply increased demands for electricity access [14]. In metropolitan areas, population growth has outpaced the rate of expansion of electricity grids, creating an unsustainable situation. For example, Stockholm County's population increased by 16% in just ten years, while grid capacity has not developed at the same rate [15].
The business community is expressing increasing concern about the impact of capacity shortages. Several companies have publicly warned of serious impacts - Borealis describes the situation as “urgent” while Trioplast sees “increasing risks that the electricity supply will work worse” [16]. For every SEK billion that is not invested in the electricity grid, business investments are delayed or not made to a value equivalent to 8 billion in lost contribution to GDP annually [5].
The Swedish National Audit Office has found that the Swedish Power Grid's expansion of the transmission network is not taking place at a sufficient pace [7]. In total, nearly 500 miles of new power line are needed to be built in the main grid [17]. Moreover, delays are self-reinforcing - capacity shortages are already hindering infrastructure expansion, housing and business expansion [17].
In 2019, acute shortage of capacity was noticed in Stockholm and Skåne [14]. Particularly vulnerable is the Stockholm region where 90 per cent of electricity consumption has to be imported from other parts of the country [18]. According to the authorities' assessment, the capacity shortage in Uppsala and Stockholm counties is expected to continue in the coming years, while the emergency situation in Skåne has been temporarily addressed [18]. At the same time, reports show that the capacity shortage is spreading to more areas, including Västerås and Uppsala [16].
To tackle Sweden's power shortage, the energy industry is working with several different solutions at the same time. These measures are critical to securing electricity supplies when demand is rising sharply.
Power grid companies are investing significant resources in modernizing and expanding the grid. Previously, the work was mostly about maintenance, but today the focus is also on expansion and reinforcement [19]. On average, about are added SEK 135 million per year on maintenance of electricity networks and an additional SEK 65 million annually on reinforcement [19]. In addition, investments of SEK 1.5—2 billion are planned over the next five years in some regions [20].
In flexibility markets, companies can sell their ability to temporarily reduce their electricity consumption or adjust their output [19]. This system helps to balance the power grid during periods of high load. At the same time, there is increasing interest in energy storage through batteries, water storage or wood chip storage at cogeneration plants [19]. Battery storage capacity expected to grow from today's low levels to around 60 MW in 2025 and 100 MW in 2026 [20].
Real-time control of the use of electricity has become an important tool against power shortages. By spreading electricity consumption over the day, load peaks can be avoided [21]. Modern technology solutions enable automatic control based on electricity price, electricity tariff or the needs of the electrical system [22]. In addition, power charges will be introduced by 2027 to encourage more even electricity use [21].
Local electricity generation is central to counteracting power shortages. Currently, only 10 percent of Gothenburg's electricity is produced locally, while the rest is imported [20]. The greatest potential is in cogeneration and gas turbines [20]. The establishment of offshore wind farms along the West Coast, such as Västvind with a planned output of 1000 MW, is also an important part of the solution [20].
The power shortage thus poses a growing challenge for Sweden's electrification, even though the country as a whole produces enough electricity. The distinction between lack of electricity, lack of power and lack of capacity appears to be crucial in understanding the problem. While electricity shortages rarely occur in Sweden, power shortages have become increasingly common during cold winter days when demand reaches its peaks. At the same time, the lack of capacity in the electricity networks hinders both community development and industrial expansion.
The consequences of these deficiencies are clearly felt in metropolitan regions such as Stockholm and Skåne, where population growth and increased digitalisation place ever higher demands on electricity supply. In addition, the situation is aggravated by the decommissioning of nuclear power in southern Sweden as well as limitations in the transmission capacity between the northern and southern parts of the country.
The solutions require a number of parallel actions. Expansion and strengthening of electricity networks is at the heart, with significant investments planned in the coming years. At the same time, flexibility markets are developing where companies can sell their ability to temporarily reduce electricity consumption. Battery storage and Real-time control of electricity use also emerges as important tools for dealing with power peaks.
Strengthening local electricity generation through both cogeneration and wind power will undoubtedly play a crucial role in countering power shortages. In fact, Sweden's electrification journey requires both strategic grid investments and smarter use of existing electricity capacity. Only when these measures are fully implemented can we continue the transition to a sustainable and electrified society without being slowed by power and capacity constraints.
Q1. What is the difference between power shortages and power shortages? Electricity shortages mean that total electricity generation is not enough for an extended period, while power shortages occur when at specific times there is not enough electricity to meet a high demand, for example during cold winter days.
Q2. How does lack of capacity affect electrification in Sweden? Capacity shortages in the grid slow down electrification by limiting the ability to connect new electricity consumers or increase the power of existing customers. This particularly affects metropolitan areas, industrial expansion and infrastructure projects.
Q3. Why do power shortages occur mainly during winter? Power shortages usually occur during cold, windless winter days when electricity consumption reaches its peaks. This is due to high demand from both households and industries while some electricity generation, such as wind power, may be limited.
Q4. What measures are being taken to reduce the power shortage in Sweden? To reduce power shortages, several solutions are being worked on, including expanding the power grid, developing flexibility markets, introducing battery stocks, controlling electricity use in real time, and strengthening local electricity generation.
[1] - https://www.svk.se/49bb53/siteassets/om-oss/rapporter/2025/kraftbalansen-pa-den-svenska-elmarknaden-rapport-2025.pdf
[2] - https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/nar-elen-inte-racker-till/elbrist-effektbrist-eller-kapacitetsbrist/
[3] - https://www.ekonomifakta.se/sakomraden/energi/om-energi/vad-ar-el-effekt-och-kapacitetsbrist_1224292.html
[4] - https://www.kunskapsverket.org/artiklar/fran-stabilt-till-volatilt
[5] - https://afry.com/sites/default/files/2023-11/samhallsekonomiska-konsekvenser-av-forsenade-natinvesteringar_v200.pdf
[6] - https://ei.se/download/18.5b0e2a2a176843ef8f56cb0a/1611643287162/Kapacitetsutmaningen-i-elnäten-Ei-R2020-06.pdf
[7] - https://www.riksrevisionen.se/granskningar/granskningsrapporter/2023/statens-atgarder-for-utveckling-av-elsystemet---reaktiva-och-bristfalligt-underbyggda.html
[8] - https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1562080/FULLTEXT01.pdf
[9] - https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/nar-elen-inte-racker-till/
[10] - https://www.bjerke-energi.se/elnat/elbrist-vi-forklarar-2/
[11] - https://www.svk.se/press-och-nyheter/nyheter/allmanna-nyheter/2025/sverige-star-utan-elreserv-i-vinter/
[12] - https://polarium.com/insights/nar-sverige-star-utan-elreserv-kan-hembatterier-gora-skillnad/
[13] - https://www.tn.se/naringsliv/34845/elbristen-har-kostat-skane-4-500-jobb-katastrof/
[14] - https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/betankande/kapacitetsbrist-i-elnaten_h801nu5/html/
[15] - https://www.storsthlm.se/media/aquo5eez/eleffektiva-kommuner-rapport.pdf
[16] - https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-och-lagar/dokument/interpellation/kapacitetsbrist-i-skane-och-ovriga-sverige_h810170/
[17] - https://www.energiforetagen.se/pressrum/debattartiklar/2021/lrf-foresprakar-dyr-och-langsam-utbyggnad-av-elnatet/
[18] - https://www.energi.se/artiklar/fortsatt-tufft-effektlage-i-regionerna/
[19] - https://www.tekniskaverken.se/privat/elnat/effekt-och-kapacitetsbrist/
[20] - https://www.energinyheter.se/20241127/32307/goteborg-riskerar-effektbrist-om-tva-ar-lokal-elproduktion-maste-oka-snabbt
[21] - https://www.malarenergi.se/el/elnat/effektsmart/
[22] - https://ei.se/konsument/anvand-el-smartare/styr-din-elanvandning
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